The Coalition and One Nation's proposal to abandon Australia's net zero climate target is not only environmentally irresponsible but also economically illogical, according to a recent CSIRO report. The report, titled 'GenCost', reveals that electricity generation costs will rise regardless of Australia's net zero policy stance, and that the most expensive generation method is nuclear power, which the Coalition and One Nation advocate for.
The report's findings are particularly interesting given the current political climate in Australia. With One Nation polling close to Labor and above the Coalition, the party's rejection of climate change science and its plans to abandon the Paris Agreement and net zero targets could have significant implications for the country's energy policy.
Paul Graham, CSIRO chief energy economist and lead author of the report, emphasizes that abandoning net zero does not provide a low-cost pathway for electricity generation. As coal plants retire, they must be replaced, and if these replacements are coal, the cost of electricity generation remains the same as if they were replaced with renewables.
Graham also highlights the importance of abatement in the electricity sector. If Australia wants to reach net zero, it must do so through abatement in the electricity sector, as it is cheaper than in other parts of the economy. This is a critical point, as it suggests that the Coalition and One Nation's proposal to abandon net zero targets is not only environmentally harmful but also economically costly.
The report also provides valuable insights into the current state of the electricity market. Wholesale prices across the National Electricity Market, excluding Western Australia and the Northern Territory, peaked at $189 per megawatt hour in 2022 but dropped to $104 in 2025. Graham predicts that prices will likely stay below $100 per MWh for the coming years, but as coal plants retire and new generation is built, wholesale prices will rise.
By 2050, prices will depend on the amount of renewables in the system, the cost of fuels, and climate policy choices. However, in all scenarios, wholesale electricity costs are likely to be above $120 per MWh, with the highest costs in scenarios that include nuclear power. Graham notes that nuclear power is consistently the most expensive option for electricity generation in Australia, even when based on South Korea's efficient deployment.
The report's findings are a stark reminder of the importance of net zero targets and the need for a sustainable and resilient energy policy. The Coalition and One Nation's proposal to abandon these targets is not only environmentally irresponsible but also economically illogical, as it will likely lead to higher electricity prices and increased greenhouse gas emissions.
In conclusion, the CSIRO's GenCost report provides valuable insights into the cost of electricity generation in Australia and the implications of different policy choices. It highlights the importance of net zero targets and the need for a sustainable and resilient energy policy. The Coalition and One Nation's proposal to abandon these targets is a dangerous and economically illogical move that will harm the environment and the economy.
